According to Reuters, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has both the incentive and the flexibility to provide crude oil cargoes, the majority of which now go to China, as a bargaining chip if negotiations with the United States progress.

President Donald Trump’s administration, which has strengthened its military presence in the Caribbean, has indicated that it is willing to negotiate with Maduro.

The Venezuelan government has failed to lure foreign investment into its oilfields as a result of US sanctions, making the prospect of resumed talks more appealing.

Washington formally labelled Venezuela’s Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist group on Monday, increasing pressure on Maduro as US officials plan additional operations in the coming days, according to sources.

Exports concentrated in China provide flexibility

Venezuela, an OPEC member, has seen its crude output steady around 1.1 million barrels per day this year — less than a third of the country’s record levels in the late 1990s.

According to shipping records, China received more than 80% of Venezuela’s oil shipments between June and October.

Analysts believe that these shipments, together with the possibility of regaining operating licenses for US corporations, might provide Maduro with the most power in any future discussions with Washington.

“Sending more oil to the United States and protecting American investment in Venezuela is something Maduro can easily offer,” said energy analyst Thomas O’Donnell.

However, he noted that such an offer “might not be enough now that Washington has the upper hand,” citing the oil market’s stability and low prices.

This week, Oil Minister Delcy Rodriguez claimed that the United States has targeted Venezuela because of its vast oil reserves. “They want Venezuelan oil and gas reserves. “For nothing, without payment,” she explained.

Rodriguez has already noted the persistent desire among US Gulf refiners for Venezuela’s heavy crude grades, contrasted with the lighter oil typically produced in the United States.

Venezuelan shipments to the United States through a license granted to Chevron plummeted in the third quarter to half the amount exported in the first quarter.

PDVSA’s lack of contracts could aid diplomatic shifts

According to Reuters, Most supply agreements owned by PDVSA, Venezuela’s state oil corporation, were terminated when US sanctions were imposed in 2019.

Since then, PDVSA has been obliged to sell the majority of its crude on the spot market at significant discounts.

Because PDVSA is no longer constrained by long-term supply contracts, the company might reroute cargoes now routed to Chinese independent refiners to the United States and Europe if a new political arrangement is struck.

The Venezuelan Oil Ministry, PDVSA, the White House, and the US State Department did not immediately respond to calls for comment.

Although Washington has barred cash payments to PDVSA for years, the business has long used oil swaps to trade petroleum for desperately needed fuel supplies.

According to LSEG tanker movement statistics and internal PDVSA papers, Venezuela increased its shipments to China to more than 80% of total exports in the second half of 2025, up from 63% previous year, owing primarily to US actions that limited other destinations.

This decision provides Maduro with the opportunity to diversify destinations again if political conditions alter.

Licenses and investment remain key unknowns

The Maduro administration could also seek negotiations to restore US permits for foreign oil producers doing business in Venezuela.

These kinds of measures might open up avenues for exports to the US and Europe, to which they are currently blocked.

Venezuela, which sits atop the world’s largest crude reserves, has had trouble attracting big energy firms to its oilfields under a contract structure proposed by Maduro in years past.

This option has attracted only small, small holders with little power to expand output.

A large number of Western companies stayed away after Hugo Chavez expropriated hundreds of companies, and as sanctions followed.

Reviving Venezuela’s diminished oil industry would require huge investments, a task analysts say would be daunting even for the opposition, which has promised reforms within the sector once in power.

The Trump administration has been inconsistent in issuing authorisations, giving temporary licenses to some companies while putting a freeze on others, only adding to the uncertainty surrounding forthcoming negotiations.

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